回到顶部图片



CEBI Research

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016



May 19, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

HK economy embracing modest recovery in 2H2022


In the wake of the fifth wave of Covid-19 outbreak, HKSAR has re-imposed stricter containment measures to avoid the spread of infection, thus disrupting domestic economic activities, lifting the latest unemployment rate to 5.0% from 4Q2021’s 3.9% and clouding near-term outlook of HK economy. As a result, declines in private consumption, external trade and investment dragged down HK GDP growth by 4% during 1Q2022.
Although improvement in health conditions alongside relaxation of social-distancing measures has emerged in April, economic activities are recovering slowly on gradual restoration of consumption and production in 2Q2022 with which the adverse effects from Covid-19 pandemic put HK economy embedded into slump during the first half of 2022.
Looking ahead, the pandemic, international geopolitical tensions and interest rate hikes continue to place enormous social and economic pressure on HK. We are of the view that HK economy is set to enhance recovery momentum in 2H2022. HK’s economy will face negative growth of 2.6% in 1H2022 while improving health and economic conditions will lead to rebounding growth of 4.5% in 2H2022. For 2022, HK’s GDP growth will reach 1.0%.





May 17, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s economy encountering slower growth momentum in April amid Covid-19 lockdowns


China’s economic conditions were characterized by downbeat trend in April as lockdowns of multiple cities in containing the spread of Covid-19 have led to mobility restrictions, thus disrupting consumption and production.
Domestic COVID-19 resurgence alongside the economic fallout of Russia-Ukraine conflict and US aggressive monetary tightening caused economic headwinds, thus weighing on China’s growth momentum.
Looking ahead, the economic disruptions from lockdowns is expected to ease as nationwide infections have shown a falling trend and Shanghai is set to lift lockdown gradually.
China’s policymakers have aware of economic shocks against the economy and the prompt implementation of an array of measures, including higher fiscal spending, tax and fee relief as well as easier monetary stance, helps support economic growth and employment, thus alleviating the downside risks and ensuring a more sustainable recovery of economic strengths.





May 5, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

The Fed pursuing faster tightening pace to curb inflation


The Fed announced a rate hike of 50bps, lifting the FFR within a target range between 0.75% and 1.0%. The half-point surge in FFR was the most aggressive move by the Fed since 2000. The Fed also launched quantitative tightening (QT) to downsize the Fed’s balance sheet.
The Fed’s statement pointed out that the U.S. economy was facing steady economic recovery alongside headwinds from persistent high inflation, characterized by tight labor market and complicated international environment. The U.S. economic growth was attributed to solid job gains but the post-pandemic recovery momentum was constrained by soaring energy and commodity prices driven by mounted geopolitical risks and the ongoing pandemic.
We are of the view that the Fed will aim at taking a more aggressive approach for monetary normalization to head off inflation spiral while maintaining economic upside momentum. Amid the U.S. inflation sticking at 40-year high and above the Fed's 2% target, we expect 50bps rate hike in each of the next two upcoming FOMC meetings and three 25bps rate hike in each of the last three FOMC meetings.





May 3, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s PMI plummeting further in April


China’s April PMI slumped further to 47.4, staying above the consensus estimate of 47.3 but below March’s 49.5 while non-manufacturing PMI plummeted to 41.9 against the consensus estimate of 46 and March’s 48.4. In sum, the official PMI marked the second consecutive months of contraction under which the deterioration of manufacturing conditions alongside fading demand for goods and services led to the quickest drop of industrial and service activities.
Looking ahead, cushioning the downside risks is of paramount importance to maintain economic stability of China’s economy. Activity in manufacturing and service sectors simultaneously contracted in April added to the urgency for more policy support to stabilize growth momentum.
We are of the view that China’s policy makers will roll out more supportive monetary and fiscal measures to hedge against destructive impact of COVID-19 outbreaks from cities’ lockdowns and disruption of industrial production, thus navigating and strengthening economic outlook.





April 21, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China embracing pro-growth policies to ensure economic stability


China embraces challenges related to the ongoing pandemic, which results in lockdown-led stoppage of economic activities in multiple cities as well as severe disruption of domestic and global supply chain. The triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations amid an increasingly complicated external environment are widening which hampers the growth prospect of China.
In order to cushion the downside risks, China’s policy makers have signaled to deploy and strengthen policy support, thus ensuring stable economic performance for 2022. China’s government will pursue a policy characterized by flexible liquidity management, proactive fiscal expansion and stable fluctuation of the renminbi to revert growth momentum of China’s economy.
The PBOC will retain flexibility in adjusting monetary policy to mitigate the downside risks by using different monetary tools to unleash the potential credits into the economy while both the central and local governments will roll out more supportive fiscal policies, thus boosting investment in infrastructure and strategic emerging industries as well as providing tax and fee relief to enterprises.





April 8, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

Navigating the renminbi outlook


The renminbi has been embedded into a volatile ride during the past 15 months as it experienced upside of more than 2.5% against the U.S. dollar (USD) in 2021 on stronger recovery of economic growth and external trading activities while facing ups and downs in 1Q2022 on concerns of economic headwinds as well as surging health and geopolitical risks.
An expected decline in current account surplus due to shrinking external demand, a narrowing yield spread on China-US monetary policy divergence and slowdown of economic activities on combating the pandemic may pose risks on making turbulent wave against the renminbi.
Keeping the renminbi stable is of paramount importance in propelling China’s growth momentum. We are of the view that China’s economic recovery out of the pandemic has been relatively swift and sturdy economic fundamentals for the renminbi remain intact in 2022. The renminbi will stay well-supported between 6.35 and 6.45 per USD for the rest of 2022.





April 6, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

Fixed income market embracing risks and opportunities in the wake of unwinding pandemic-induced ultra-loose monetary regime


A combination of fading global growth momentum, a more hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and unresolved Russia-Ukraine crisis push forward continued flattening of yield curves in the sense that the evolution of inflation and central bank policy responses will likely drive higher fixed income market volatility.
Although the Fed accelerates the pace of monetary normalization and bond yields are climbing steadily, global liquidity remains ample with the yields still rising at a reasonable pace. Investors continue to act as yield chasers, which bolster the prospects for high-yield and investment-grade bonds.
Despite the current macroeconomic headwinds, global advances along the path to vaccinations and activities normalization will continue to boost business and consumer confidence. Cash flow and leverage will likely pick up for enterprises, which reduce default risks of fixed income market in coming quarters. Investors seek diversification in their portfolios, especially after turbulent run of equity markets and we are of the view that global liquidity will continue to flow into high-quality bonds to balance risks and returns in 2Q2022.





March 29, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

Riding turbulent wave of equity markets


Global investment environment was complicated and uncertain in 1Q2022 as equity markets around the globe have fluctuated turbulently on the ongoing pandemic, Russia-Ukraine crisis, the U.S. first pandemic-era rate hike, unresolved worldwide supply-chain chaos, US-China financial market tensions over delisting threat of Chinese companies in the U.S. alongside the ongoing China’s regulatory crackdown and debt woes of China’s property sector.
The U.S. and European markets corrected mainly on the potential economic and political impact of Russia military actions against Ukraine. For China and HK markets, market sentiment was hit by signs of slowing economic activity and potential delisting of US-traded Chinese companies.
Global equities continue to be challenging due to headwinds surrounding inflationary pressures and sanctions against Russia alongside derailing US-China relations. The complication of global economy paves the way for more near-term fluctuation in financial markets but provides more investment opportunities in different markets and sectors.
We are of the view that recent market rebalancing has priced-in faster pace of monetary easing as well as rising geopolitical risks. As the economic expansion driven by more widespread vaccinations and rebounding domestic demand broadens out, investors’ optimism will escalate under which global equities point to embrace for an overweight position with volatile ride in 2Q2022.





March 17, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

The Fed’s first pandemic-era rate hike to battle escalating inflation despite hovering geopolitical risks


The Fed kicked off the widely-expected post-pandemic rate hike for the first time since 2018, lifting the benchmark federal fund rates (FFR) by 25 bps to a target range between 0.25% and 0.5%. The Fed has also wrapped up pandemic-era bond purchases program and prepared to downsize the Fed’s USD$9 trillion balance sheet in May.
The U.S. growth was strengthening on solid job gains but the post-pandemic recovery momentum was constrained by unresolved supply-side disruptions, soaring energy and commodity prices, hiking geopolitical risks and the ongoing pandemic. The Fed’s move signaled clearly that monetary tightening is of paramount importance in easing the staggering inflation.
The Fed will embark on anchoring inflation expectations to reduce the risk of persistently high inflation. Amid the U.S. inflation hovering at 40-year high and remaining significantly above the Fed's 2% target, we expect six 25bp rate hikes during the upcoming FOMC meetings for the rest of 2022 alongside shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet gradually.





March 15, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s economy maintaining modest growth momentum during 2M2022


China’s economy demonstrated modest growth momentum during the first two months of 2022 as slower growth trend has emerged from some major economic indicators under which property investment, industrial production, external trade and retail sales decelerated in varying degree while fixed asset investment (FAI) showed rebounding momentum and inflation remained mild.
China’s economy faces surging downward pressures on economic activities driven by fading domestic growth expectations, continued supply-chain bottlenecks, unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising US-China economic and political tensions. China’s policymakers have stepped up efforts on policy stimulus to maintain stability of economic momentum while limiting mounted health risks towards the pandemic.
Slower growth remains intact in 1H2022 while the pick-up pace of domestic demand and technological innovation will help alleviate the downside risks and accelerate growth momentum in 2H2022. The trajectory of China's economy is towards sound and stable growth with which GDP growth will reach 5.5% in 2022.





March 8, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s 2022 NPC: embracing more policy support to maintain economic stability


The NPC opened its fifth annual session in Beijing on 5th March 2022. Amid the complex and volatile economic environment as well multiple challenges from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the NPC focused on addressing the issues including fading domestic growth expectations, continued supply-chain bottlenecks, unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising US-China economic and political tensions.
In tandem with economic headwinds, China lowered economic growth target for 2022 to 5.5%. The economic uncertainties prompt China’s policymakers to exercise stronger stimulus measures to maintain stability of economic momentum while limiting mounted health risks towards the pandemic.
China strives to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society. China’s economy will grow within a reasonable range in 2022 under which slower growth remains intact in 1H2022 while the pick-up pace of domestic demand and technological innovation alongside macroeconomic policy stimulus will accelerate growth momentum in 2H2022, thus ensuring a more sustainable recovery of economic strengths.





February 24, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

Omicron shockwave derailing recovery momentum of Hong Kong economy


In the wake of renewed outbreak of the pandemic, HK has re-imposed social-distancing measures to avoid the spike of infected cases, thus disrupting domestic economic activities and clouding near-term outlook of HK economy.
HK’s battle against an escalating outbreak of the highly contagious OV causes marked unavoidable slowdown in growth momentum and is expected to hammer HK economy severely in the first half of 2022.
With the support of the Central Government, HK is set to control the epidemic and restore recovery path of the economy. The previous Government’s relief packages and fiscal measures announced in the latest Budget will help support consumption sectors, safeguard jobs and relieve people’s burden, thus offsetting the contractionary economic pressures.
HK’s economy is expected to grow slowly by 1% in 1H2022 while 2H2022 is likely to demonstrate rebounding growth at 2.9% YoY on improving health and economic conditions. For 2022, HK’s GDP growth will reach 2.0%.





February 16, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s inflation staying mild in January


China’s CPI edged up only by 0.9% on YoY basis in January. CPI weakening uptrend was mainly due to swelling of food deflation and lower price inflation of consumer goods.
China’s PPI rose at a decelerating pace at YoY growth of 9.1% in January. The costs for goods at the factory gate demonstrated slowing uptrend due to less MoM rise of raw material prices.
Multiple growth headwinds have clouded the growth outlook of China’s economy. A continuously mild inflation would ease the concern of ample liquidity to push up inflation, therefore supporting the flexible monetary policy to stimulate economic growth.
The recent government’s efforts in taming commodities prices, restoring stable power supply and ensuring supply chain resilience will further stabilize the general price level of consumers and manufacturers, thus supporting modest growth of China’s economy in 2022.





January 27, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

The Fed signaling earlier rate hikes to sustain inflation flight


The Fed continued to keep the target range of the Fed fund rates (FFR) unchanged at the level near zero and wrap up pandemic-era bond purchases program in early March. The Fed also signaled the proceeding with earlier-than-expected rate hikes in 2022 to hedge against inflation spikes, thus ensuring continued recovery of economic activities.
The U.S. economy was strengthening on solid job gains but the post-pandemic recovery momentum is constrained by residual supply-side disruption, upside inflation risks and the spread of the Omicron variant (OV). The policy shift of the Fed aims at tightening monetary conditions in 2022 to ease the staggering inflation.
Amid the U.S. economic outlook clouded by growth and health headwinds, the U.S. policy makers point to maintain the accommodative stance of different economic tools to propel growth momentum in 2022.
We expect four 25bp rate hikes will be launched during the year, with the first rate hike kicking off in March and the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking in 2H2022.





January 17, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China's economy embracing modest expansion in 2021


China’s economy grew by 8.1% in 2021, recovering further from 2020’s 2.2% and staying above the consensus estimate of 8.0%. Economic indicators embraced uptrend from the slump in 2020, with growth of FAI, industrial production, retail sales and external trade accelerating in varying degrees.
The growth headwinds including sustained pressures from pandemic, flooding, supply chain meltdown, regulatory crackdown on business, energy shortage and debt problems afflicting property sector put China’s economy embedded into slower YoY quarterly expansion of 4.0% during 4Q2021 from 3Q2021’s 4.9%.
Looking forward to 2022, China’s economy is facing threefold pressure, namely contraction of aggregate demand, supply shocks and slowing growth momentum. China’s policy makers has pledged to maintain stability of economic momentum by strengthening stimulus measures.
China’s economic fundamentals remain sound and we forecast GDP growth will reach 5.0% YoY in 2022.





January 13, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

China’s inflation remaining stable in 2021


China's CPI slowed down to 1.5% YoY in December. Softening CPI was mainly due to drop of food price and moderating non-food price with which proper supply of food alongside weakening rise of retail energy prices stabilized general price level. For 2021, China consumer inflation rose 0.9%.
China’s PPI grew less quickly than expected in December at 10.3% YoY. The decelerating trend of industrial prices was mainly driven by proper government policies to safeguard the supply of raw materials and curb shortage of energy. For 2021, PPI rose 8.1% YoY.
Cooling consumer and industrial prices have alleviated inflationary pressures on China’s economy, thus supporting the flexible monetary policy in countering the economic slowdown.
The recent government’s efforts in taming commodities prices, restoring stable power supply and ensuring supply chain resilience will further strengthen stabilization of the general price level of consumers and manufacturers, thus supporting the recovery of China’s economy.





January 7, 2022
Economic Acumen
CEBI Research

Global financial markets signaling heightened volatility ahead


Staggering inflation, global supply-chain bottlenecks, emerging COVID-19 variants alongside geopolitical risks were all factors overwhelming investors in 2021.
Entering into 2022, the trajectory of the stock markets continues to demonstrate split trend around the globe. The post-pandemic recovery is expected to continue but growth will be constrained by residual supply-side disruption, global tightening of financial conditions due to upside inflation risks and the spread of the Omicron variant (OV).
The complication of global economy paves the way for more near-term fluctuations in financial markets but provides more investment opportunities in different markets and sectors.
We are of the view that as the economic expansion driven by more widespread vaccinations and rebounding domestic demand broadens out along with decelerating health risks, investors’ optimism will escalate under which global equities point to embrace for an overweight position with volatile ride in 2022.